Nifty flat in INR, down ~13% in USD - no one’s talking

[Deepika]

Really wondering why this isn't being talked about.

There's no crisis, no RBI emergency, no big news – just a slow, steady rupee depreciation that added up to about a 13% loss for anyone who kept everything in rupees over the past year.

Here are the numbers:

Nifty 50: down roughly 1 % in rupee terms over the last 12 months.

In dollar terms: down about 13‑14 % (the rupee's fall wipes out the returns).

US money‑market fund: about 5 % in dollars, which works out to around 18 % in rupee terms.

Your FD: 7 % in rupees, which translates to roughly –6 % in dollar terms.

So a "safe" domestic investor who only held Nifty and an FD quietly lost about 13 % of real global purchasing power this year.

The surprising bit? The RBI allows every resident Indian to remit up to $250,000 per year under the LRS to hedge this. Most people haven't used even a dollar of that.

I'm not saying go all‑in on global assets, or that the rupee won't bounce back. I'm just pointing out that a portfolio fully in one currency isn't truly diversified – it only feels that way because it's the default.

Anyone else thinking about this, or am I missing something?

[joshi]

Indian investors haven't put money into dollars; they're measuring returns in rupee terms.

Foreign investors see that and have been pulling out of Indian markets.

It's one thing to suggest looking for opportunities abroad, but another to push it. Investing in the US isn't as simple as opening an Indmoney account – there are extra complications. If an advisor recommends US investments without warning about estate‑tax exposure, they're setting you up for trouble later.

I'm not denying that the rupee's fall is real, but you need to hedge with full awareness.

[Manav]

No crisis?

Buddy, check the global oil prices.

Also notice the slowdown in hiring among the middle class – they're the biggest non‑food consumer group.

[Usha]

The RBI seems to be in full panic mode.

They blocked future rupee trades without a receivable, which caused the rupee to jump from 95 to 93 a few days ago.

Now a free‑fall could start again – I think it might dip to around 110.

It's a win for our manufacturing sector because we become 20‑25 % cheaper.

But it's a massive loss for the country since we import energy and remittances could drop 20‑25 % because of the Middle East war.

I'm looking at a tough 5‑6 year horizon for the nation.

[Hitesh]

Can anyone suggest foreign funds that accept lump‑sum or SIP investments? Or point me to resources where I can see the list?

[Neeraj]

In terms of the Real Effective Exchange Rate, the rupee has been a bit overvalued over the past decade. Nominal figures alone don't tell the whole story; you need to look at REER to get a real sense of currency moves.

Given today's global issues – especially high oil prices – the rupee will naturally depreciate against the dollar. We don't want the RBI to revert to the pre‑1990s era of strict FX control, which was worse overall.

Short‑term market swings don't necessarily signal economic problems – they're often unrelated to fundamentals – and it isn't the RBI's job to manage the rupee for that reason.

Using Nifty 50's performance in dollar terms as a measure of the RBI's competence is pointless, like judging Sachin Tendulkar on his dancing skills.

To answer the question, country risk should always be hedged. Most people are heavily concentrated in their own market, but basic diversification is something everyone should practice, and it doesn't reflect on the RBI's performance as the central bank.

[Anupama]

Markets move up and down. A 13 % move isn't huge for the market. There's no guarantee the US or any market will repeat past performance. The key is diversification. Most mutual funds already have foreign‑equity exposure, and you also have gold.

[Ritu]

There's a concept called interest‑rate parity. If everyone converts rupees to dollars, the appreciation gain you counted won't last long.

[Shobha]

Indians are doing better by investing in gold, which is the top hedge against a falling dollar.

[Vaishali]

This is why I stopped my SIPs in India. Keeping euros in my account gave me almost a 30 % rise in rupee value, interest included. In the same period, my mutual‑fund investments returned about 4 %. I'm not even counting precious metals yet, so I shifted all my investments from rupees to a euro account.

[Varunesh]

Assuming I agree with the point, where can ordinary citizens buy US bonds? I'm a direct investor and don't want to dilute my decisions with ETFs. I just want to see if this is merely scary maths or a real opportunity loss.