Been tracking gold in INR since 1980. Something odd keeps repeating.
1980 ₹133. Ran to ₹515 by 1996 – 16 years.
Fell to ₹375 by 1999 – 3 years down.
Then ran again. ₹1,150 by 2012 – 13 years.
Fell again. ₹2,228 by 2015 – 3 years down.
Current rally started 2015. 20% COVID dip, recovered. Another 20% correction expected in 2026. Still holding.
13‑year rally from 2015 may end in 2028?
Not a prediction, just a pattern I keep seeing. Could be coincidence.
What do you think?
Coincidence
If charts were that spot‑on for the future, wouldn't a lot more people be millionaires by now?
Just a heads‑up for anyone reading – this is what actually happened, but it doesn't mean there's any hidden logic behind those numbers.
As long as the dollar stays the dominant currency, gold and US Treasury yields move in opposite directions. When you can't find a link with yields, look at inflation.
1980s – Volcker era
2012 – Fed QE
2020 onwards – higher inflation
What matters is guessing what will happen next. Charts help us understand history, not to draw firm conclusions. Reading them without any context is just plain foolishness.
If you want to dive deeper into commodities, check out Jim Rogers. He's shown that commodities run on long cycles of about 10‑15 years because the supply chain – from mine exploration to funding to getting the product to market – takes ages. Economic cycles in the middle affect how viable the whole thing is.
Back in 1992, a salary of ₹2,500‑₹5,000 was considered out of reach for most people.
It isn't that simple.
Anything – just random.
It's the circumstances and global events that shape the chart, not the other way round.
Reminds me of that so‑called "correlation" between S&P returns and butter production in Bangladesh.
When you have a huge amount of data points, you'll inevitably spot spurious patterns because our brains love to see connections.
Fun fact for a party, but don't bet big money on it.